Climate Change works better in practice than in theory In response to Koonin's last media moment earlier this year, Climate Feedback tapped twelve climate scientists to review an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal based on his book, "Unsettled",. One must hope that his courage and sense of scientific morality, if not his specific viewpoint on climatology, will prevail. On May 6, theoretical physicist and former Obama administration energy official Steve Koonin appeared on two Fox programs to discuss his recently released book Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesnt, and Why It Matters. A critical review of Steven Koonin's 'Unsettled' This is not to say that uncertainty is being eliminated, but decision makers have become more comfortable dealing with the inevitable residuals. Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles Or global health is better, so a pandemic is no big deal. Data is binned into 3-year periods. The science is stronger than ever around findings that speak to the likelihood and consequences of climate impacts, and has been growing stronger for decades. Nevertheless, he has. Gary Yohe is the Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Emeritus, at Wesleyan University in Connecticut. This is particularly true with regard to the exaggerated natural, social and economic risks associated with climate extremesthe low-probability, high-consequence events that are such a vital part of effective risk management. The professors find fault with Mr. Koonins conclusion that better models are required before we waste trillions of dollars trying to avoid the end of the earth as we know it. Figure 6 The proportion of major hurricane intensities to all hurricane intensities globally from 19792017. climate scientists and experts have lambasted Koonin's book. Read36 mins ago | The Editorial Board, Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles In Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn''t, and Why It Matters, Steven Koonin draws upon his decades of experienceincluding as a top science advisor to the Obama administrationto provide up-to-date insights and expert perspective free from political agendas. Obama admin scientist says climate 'emergency' is based on fallacy Charlie Kirk: Politicians are singing off the song sheet that we provide them, Fox rehashes old bad-faith arguments and misinformation in covering Green New Deal reintroduction, Fox News wasted no time rolling out its climate strategy for the Biden administration: denial and bad-faith arguments, Right-wing medias favorite climate contrarians go on Fox shows to bash Bidens climate plan, both appeared across the right-wing media ecosystem. Not because of its conclusions about climate, about which his contrarian views might be completely wrong. News Corp is a global, diversified media and information services company focused on creating and distributing authoritative and engaging content and other products and services. 07/17/20 4:00 PM EDT, Right-wing media are having a field day with physicist Steve Koonins new book of climate misinformation, Arson attack on Tulsa donut shop hosting a drag event follows right-wing media campaign of fear, Sean Hannity claims theres not one Republican supporting the Republican proposal to cut Social Security and Medicare, The Daily Wire's Matt Walsh criticizes Elon Musk for meeting with Black and Jewish advocacy groups, claims he is the real victim. 04/22/21 4:34 PM EDT, Article The other mode is to make . Steven Koonin | A Deceptive New Report on Climate - NYU The discovery that as many as half of all published paperscannot pass the basic test of replication has yet to be meaningfully addressed. This climate change contrarian gives us an important reminder about science in general, Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates. The U.S. government's Climate Science Special Report, to be released Friday, does not provide that foundation. What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters. 11/03/22 5:23 PM EDT, Research/Study It is important to note that Koonin recognizes this source in his discussion of assessments, and even covers the foundations of the confidence and likelihood language embedded in its findings (specific references from the IPCC report are presented in brackets). His teaser for Chapter 7 is an equally troubling misdirection. Rather, because Unsettled is surfacing the anti-intellectual, burn-the-heretic attitude that has infected too much of the academic and policy worlds. From Kossin et al. This is how science works, and in the case of climate, the early indications detected and attributed in the 1980s and 1990s, have come true, over and over again and sooner than anticipated. Response: Perhaps, as Swain says, it doesnt really make sense to make blanket statements like this, but thats precisely what the IPCC did. Listen to this episode from The Joe Rogan Experience on Spotify. By Steven Koonin The world's response to climate changing under natural and human influences is best founded upon a complete portrayal of the science. Koonin implies throughout the book that climate scientists have conspired to downplay uncertainty and exaggerate the risk, apparently unaware of the fact that increased uncertainty means increased risks. Steven Koonin was Undersecretary for Science in the Energy Department during the Obama Administration, and a 15 year climate scientist who has worked for Big Oil and numerous scientific. Oct 18, 2021. Koonin concludes with the spot-on observation that many of the reports "continue to paint a demonstrably deficient picture of the science [of climate change]. But he is deeply troubled appalled is one of his terms by the misuse of science, his lifes work, to persuade rather than inform, and by the near-hysterical pressure to stifle and vilify any deviation from the dogma of the day. . "If no mitigating action is taken the world economy could shrink by 18 per cent in the next 30 years." Frances Moore, Assistant Professor, University of California Davis: While global crop yields are rising, this does not constitute evidence that climate change is not adversely affecting agriculture. The observational record does not show any significant change in the frequency of U.S. tornadoes in the last 60 years but there is a tendency that more tornadoes occur during big outbreak days[34] and there are spatial shifts in the occurrence of tornadoes[30]. "Unsettled," Talking Climate Change with Steven Koonin That. Our columnists made their midterm picks. Knowledge awaits. Take, for example, the 2020 experience. Various scenarios for fossil-fuel burning take us above 1000 ppm in the next several decades, a level not seen for over 50 million years and at a time without ANY significant ice sheets on the planet and a much warmer climate (at least 10F warmer on a global average). A much more honest statement should read something like this from the IPCC Fifth Assessment: there is low to medium confidence in attribution of climate change influence on a few sectors Risks of global aggregate impacts are moderate for additional warming between 1C to 2C compared to 19862005 Aggregate economic damages accelerate with increasing temperature (limited evidence, high agreement) but few quantitative estimates have been completed for additional warming around 3C. Since 2014, more comprehensive studies have offered still incomplete portraits of the correlations between distributions of net economic damage (not just fitted values) along alternative global development pathways and increases in global mean temperature[41]. Released on May 4 and entitled Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesnt, and Why It Matters, its major theme is that the science about the Earths climate is anything but settled. Highlighting that there are no climatologically significant trends in tornadoes, as is true for many other severe weather phenomena, is a tonic to the widespread perception that weve already broken the climate. There is a more marked increase in nighttime lows than in daytime highs (the warmest temperatures) because of factors like the cooling effect of daytime aerosol pollution and soil moisture evaporation. Koonin, who recently appeared on Fox News Tucker Carlson Tonight, pushes a message of climate skepticism that right-wing outlets are all too eager to lap up, Special He's also the author of "Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters." Create your free account or Sign in to continue. These are the realities driving President Biden's fully justified proposals for addressing the climate-change challenge. As my books Chapter 7 says (beginning on page 138), it is also difficult to see any long-term trend in drought across the contiguous US, but there are clear regional trends, particularly in the US Southwest. Galileo, not the high priest Inquisitors who condemned and ostracized him for his heresies, is the person we remember. in some ways this piece represents a material step forward in the annals of the Wall Street Journal's coverage of climate change: Koonin writes that the human . He says that such manipulation often crosses the line into cooking the books., We have never expected much truthfulness or integrity from our politicians, whose self-interest in publicity and campaign dollars too often outweighs any scruples about scientific precision. One is that we suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, and it's hard to be against that. There is no climate emergency. See figure below : Figure 7 Estimates of total direct damages across all sectors from climate change on the U.S. economy. Physicist Steven Koonin, a former BP chief scientist and Obama administration energy official, seeks to downplay climate change risk in his new book, "Unsettled: What Climate Science. Unsettled : What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn - Google Books William Happer, a Princeton scientist who is doubtful of the dangers of climate change, appears to be leading a White House challenge to the government's conclusion that global warming is a threat. "Unsettled is a remarkable bookprobably the best book on climate change for the intelligent laypersonthat achieves the feat of conveying complex information clearly and . The first two, which are brief, are from the introduction. Sign In. Main Menu. Future projections regarding climate change and tornado risk are of somewhat low confidence, but there is evidence that atmospheric environments favorable for severe convective storms (which are the types of storms capable of producing tornadoes) may increase in the future due to climate warming[32,33]. Koonin is wrong on both counts. And in 2019, he reportedly tried to help former President Donald Trump create a climate contrarians panel with longtime climate denier Will Happer. In the first place, the theoretically predicted trends would not have been detectable in the sparse and noisy hurricane record until recently, and in fact they HAVE recently been detected. One cliche that has lost almost all value is speaking truth to power. These days, it almost invariably is attached not to an act of genuine courage but to its opposite, the spouting of some politically favored bromide. $ + tax Unsettled: A Book Talk on Climate Science with Dr. Steven E. Koonin Koonin . Overall, says Twila Moon, many conclusions highlighted in this article are examples of cherry-picking information and failing to provide the context of change. Steve Koonin is just the latest to inflate his modest liberal credentials, a two-year stint in the Obama administration, to sell the rankest of rightwing climate denial propaganda retreads in. Therefore, it doesnt really make sense to make blanket statements regarding overall global drought trends, since only some places are expected to get drier (and others wetter) in a warming climate. It is, however, well-covered in Unsettleds Chapter 6. Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT: Koonin sets up a strawman in claiming that tornado frequency and severity are not trending up. Fox News fearmongered 80 times about Halloween trick-or-treaters getting rainbow fentanyl. That consortium of academic, corporate, and government partners will pursue research and education activities to develop and demonstrate informatics technologies for urban problems in the "living laboratory" of New York City. the widely discussed 1.5C guardrail.]. In fact, these trends are consistent with predictions regarding tropical cyclone behavior due to global warming: there is a strong expectation that the maximum potential intensity of hurricanes will increase due to rising ocean temperatures, even as the overall frequency of such storms does not change greatly or perhaps even decreases[40]. Article Washington Post lets George Will mislead its opinion page readers As Figure 8 shows, is doesnt hold for the recent past at high resolution, but is correct for older times at coarser resolution. Doesnt the world face economic catastrophe, absent wrenching, unimaginably expensive actions to reduce greenhouse emissions? These criticisms of Koonin's book are complemented by a lengthy, detailed, substantiative review from 12 scientists in Climate Feedback Criticisms are supported with figures and cited references. Learn on the go with our new app. However, I agree that it requires more context than is possible to give in a 900-word book review. And if it were to occur, it would be made up by 2 years of growth. The vast majority of these have been with right-wing media outlets, including sources that are climate deniers. Daniel Swain, Climate Scientist, University of California, Los Angeles: [Comment from a previous evaluation of a similar claim] While there remains no strong evidence for an increase in tropical cyclone (hurricane) frequency on a global basis, there is evidence that the most intense tropical cyclones are indeed becoming stronger in terms of maximum wind speeds and minimum central pressure[38] and are producing more extreme rainfall[39]. This new type of climate denial espoused by people like Koonin -- who say climate change is happening but its not that big of a problem -- provides perfect cover for right-wing media outlets to act like they care about the issue while they continue helping polluting companies kick climate action down the road. Emanuels claim of a strawman is then curious. Greenlands ice sheet isnt shrinking any more rapidly today than it was eighty years ago. For a risk-based approach to climate discussions about what we should do, this statement is irrelevant. Physicist challenges conventional wisdom of climate change impact - CNBC In the book's first sentences he asserts that "the Science" about our planet's climate is . Explore our digital archive back to 1845, including articles by more than 150 Nobel Prize winners. This is widely known despite claims to the contrary in Chapter 8 which is described in the introduction as a levelheaded look at sea levels, which have been rising over the past many millennia. Koonin continues: Well untangle what we really know about human influences on the current rate of rise (about one foot per century) and explain why its very hard to believe that surging seas will drown the coasts any time soon.. That's right, and of course, we need to have theoretical physicist Steve Koonin back on the show as soon as possible, including his fabulous new book called "Unsettled," where he shows that these . It is unsupportable without qualification because aggregate estimates are so woefully incomplete [Section 19.6.3.5]. Most significantly, the majority of the authors had only low confidence that any other observed tropical cyclone changes were beyond what could be attributed to natural variability. (2020)[38]. Photo Provided. In episode 37 of the PetroNerds podcast, Trisha Curtis sits down with Steven E. Koonin, the author of "Unsettled." Trisha and Steve discuss the premise of the book, the elevation of climate change in policy making, potential pitfalls in the data, and the controversial topic of understanding how much humans are influencing global warming and the certainty of that in the reports and analysis. Climate Science Is 'Unsettled,' Says Obama Science Director According to Steven Koonin, when it comes to climate change, the media, politicians, and other prominent voices have declared that "the science is settled." Koonin avers that the long game of telephone from research to reports, to the popular media, is corrupted by misunderstanding and misinformation. In the climate change wars, perhaps an equally important development is associated with the publication of Steve Koonin's book "Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and . Steve Koonin is hoping you'll see Obama's name and trust him when he tells you that he's better equipped to summarize major climate reports than the authors of the U.N.'s IPCC report and the. In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, owing to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Carney's COP26 victory lap in raising US$130 trillion for NetZero transition is questioned as greenwashing, the Financial Post reports.. CALGARY, AB, Nov. 9, 2021 /CNW/ - As reported in the Financial Post of Nov. 9, 2021 .
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